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Impact of Climate Change

    Summary of research line

The research projects address the evaluation of the uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agricultural systems. These not only depend on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the agricultural systems of specific regions of the Iberian Peninsula. First-order impact analysis and adaptation strategies are done at the current highest resolution possible (50x50km2 and 20×20 km2) for specific regions, through reference summer and winter crops, and changes in water use.

Most relevant projects

Multiscale climate variability. Agricultural and economic impacts MULCLIVAR. Subproject II: ACER-Agro: Integrated Assessment of Climatic Hazards and Economic Risks: Adapting Agricultural Systems in Spain
Project financed by MINECO: CGL2012-38923-C02-02
Duration: January 2013-June 2016
Research leader: María Inés Minguez

Environmental Risk and Impact Assessment of the PepsiCo Crop Sourcing Locations.
Project financed by: PepsiCo Europe 
Duration: 2014-2015
Director: Alberto Garrido- CEIGRAM
AgSystems researchers: C.G. Hernández, M.I. Mínguez, M. Ruiz-Ramos

Generation of probabilistic scenarios of impact and adaptation to climate change on agriculture in the center of Iberain Peninsula. Tool for Scientific Support to Policies, v. 2” PEII10-0248-5680.
Project finance by: Viceconsejería de Educación y Ciencia de Castilla-La Mancha
Duration: April 2010-April 2013
Research leader: Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Manuel de Castro

Impact and adaptation of agricultural systems in the Basque country to climate change.
Project financed by: NEIKER-Tecnalia
Duration: June 2009-June 2010
Research leader: Margarita Ruiz-Ramos

Minimising uncertainties in the analyses of climate change impact and adaptation in the agricultural systems of the Iberian Peninsula. Tool for Scientific Support to Policies. MINUNIMAD-CC.
Project financed by: CICYT (AGL2008-00385).
Duration : 2009-2011
Research leader: Mª Inés Minguez

Impact and adaptation of agricultural systems in Central Iberian Peninsula to climate change.
Project financed by: Consejería de Educación y Ciencia de Castilla-La Mancha (PAI08-0009-4676)
Duration: 2008-2010
Research leaderl UPM group:Margarita Ruiz-Ramos

Prediction of Regional scenarios and uncertainties for defining European Climate change risks and effects. PRUDENCE.
Project financed by: Comisión Europea (EVK2-CT-2001-00132)
Duration: 2002-2004
Research leader Grupo UPM: Mª Inés Minguez

Generating regional scenarios of future climate and its application to impact studies in the Iberian Peninsula.
Project financed by: CICYT (REN2000-0769-C02-02 / CLI)
Duration: 2001-2003
Research leader: Mª Inés Minguez

Aplication of climatic regional models to the prediction of possible climate change effects in irrigation systems.
Project financed by: CEDEX-Ministerio de Infrastructuras (P97-0260-329).
Duration: 1998-99
Research leader: Mª Inés Minguez

Impact in water demand of Spanish irrigation systems associated to climate change.
Project financed by: CEDEX-Ministerio de Infrastructuras (P97-0260-329).
Duration: 1997-98
Research leader: Mª Inés Minguez

Most relevant publications

Articles in JCR journals.

– Tao, F., Rötter, R. P., Palosuo, T., Díaz-Ambrona, C.G.H., Mínguez, M.I., Semenov, M., Kurt Christian Kersebaum, K.C., Nendel, K., Cammarano, D., Hoffmann, H., Ewert, F., Dambreville, A., Martre, P., Rodríguez, L., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Gaiser, T., Höhn, J.G., Salo, T., Ferrise, R., Bindi, M., Schulman, A. H. 2017. Designing future barley ideotypes using a crop model ensemble. European Journal of Agronomy. Volume 82, Part A: 144–162.
– Gabaldón-Leal, C., Lorite, I.J., Mínguez, M.I., Lizaso, J.I, Dosio, A., Sanchez, E. and Ruiz-Ramos, M. 2015. Strategies for adapting maize to climate change and extreme temperatures in Andalusia, Spain. Climate Research, 65: 159–173.
– Ruiz-Ramos, M., Rodríguez, A., Dosio, A., Goodess, C. M., Harpham, C., Mínguez, M.I. and Sánchez, E. 2015. Comparing correction methods of RCM outputs for improving crop impact projections in the Iberian Peninsula for 21st century. Climatic Change.
– Pirttioja, N et al. 2015. Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces. Climate Research, 65: 87–105.
– Garrido A., Rey D., Ruiz-Ramos M. and Mínguez M.I. 2011. Climate change and crop adaptation in Spain: consistency of regional climate models. Climate Research 49: 211-227.
– Ruiz-Ramos M., Sánchez E., Gallardo C. and Mínguez MI. 2011. Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol 11: 3275–3291.
– Rey D., Garrido A., Mínguez M.I. and Ruiz-Ramos M. 2011. Impact of climate change on maize’s water needs, yields and profitability under various water prices in Spain. Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research, 9: 1047-1058.
– Ruiz-Ramos, M. and Mínguez, M.I. 2010. Evaluating uncertainty in climate change impacts on crop productivity in the Iberian Peninsula. Climate Research 44: 69–82.
– Mínguez, M.I., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Díaz-Ambrona, C. H., Quemada M. and Sau, F. 2007. First-order impacts on winter and summer crops assessed with various high-resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula. Climatic Change. 
– Olesen, J. E., Carter T. R., Díaz-Ambrona, C. H., Fronzek, S., Heidmann, T., Hickler, T., Holt, T., Minguez, M. I., Morales, P., Palutikof, J. P., Quemada, M., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Rubæk, G.H., Sau, F., Smith, B. and Sykes, M. T. 2007. Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models. Climatic Change. (En prensa)
– Guereña, A., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Díaz-Ambrona, C.H., Conde, J.R. and Mínguez, M.I. 2001. Assessment of climate change and agriculture across geographical areas in Spain using a General and a Regional Climate Model. Agronomy Journal, 93, 237-249.
– Mínguez, M.I., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Díaz-Ambrona, C.H. and Quemada, M. 2004. Productivity in agricultural systems under climate change scenarios. Journal de Physique, IV France, 121, 269-281.
– Iglesias, A. and Mínguez, M.I. 1997. Modelling crop-climate interactions in Spain: vulnerability and adaptations of different agricultural systems to climate change. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 1, 273-288.
Others publications.
– Hernández Díaz-Ambrona, C., 2007. La agricultura no es una alternativa energética global. Agricultura, ISSN 0002-
1334, Vol. LXXVI, 893, 110-111.